The Possible Super El Nino (2014-2015): East Central Florida and the Indian River Lagoon

Introduction

The intent of this blog entry is to provide information on the possible impacts of the forecast El Nino (may it be medium, large or, super!) on the locale of east-central Florida and with particular emphasis on the Indian River Lagoon. A list of 10 initial offerings are provided with some quotes. Some things to think about along the way: 

1) Is our infrastructure ready to handle this event? 
2) Are there preventative measures we can take? (from citizens to communities).
3) Our our scientific measuring systems ready (from stream gauges to salinity)? A specific shout out to the new Indian River Lagoon Research Institute (IRLRI)!

Updates
Postscript 1: Added an article on long lead El Nino prediction
Postscript 2: Added some additional material on Hurricane Impacts
Postscript 3: Added plots showing the increased storm tracks over FL during the 1997-1998 El Nino.
Postscript 4: Added impacts of 1997-1998 on St. Lucie Estuary & the southern Indian River Lagoon

The El Nino Prediction

While the Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Nino watch with the wording that "50% chance of El Niño developing during the summer or fall" there is a buzz that this may become a Super El Nino event. See for example the following article "Talk of a 'super' El Niño out in the Pacific": http://www.laobserved.com/archive/2014/03/a_super_el_nino_on_the_wa.php

The Climate Prediction Center shows the striking development of a deep warm anomaly heading in the Pacific ocean moving from the west to east with the last plot being the most current. Anomalies are greater then 6 degrees Celsius (or about 10 F).

The most current analysis from the CPC:

The Climate Prediction Center "Climate Forecast System" is currently forecasting the following sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly evolution for the El Nino through the Fall,

What can we expect from a moderate to strong El Nino in east-central Florida region? Noting that we need to be cautious about using past events as analogs for current events, the following is a collection of information that may help us speculate!

Postscript 1) A recent article claims a long lead time forecast for this event:

Very early warning of next El Niño: Josef Ludescher, Avi Gozolchiani, Mikhail I. Bogachev, Armin Bunde, Shlomo Havlin, and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber PNAS 2014 111 (6) 2064-2066; published ahead of print February 11, 2014, doi:10.1073/pnas.1323058111

"Recently, we developed an approach based on network analysis, which allows projection of an El Niño event about 1 y ahead. Here we show that our method correctly predicted the absence of El Niño events in 2012 and 2013 and now announce that our approach indicated (in September 2013 already) the return of El Niño in late 2014 with a 3-in-4 likelihood. We also discuss the relevance of the next El Niño to the question of global warming and the present hiatus in the global mean surface temperature."

Global impacts from El Nino are shown in the following CPC graphic, which indicates generally wet/cool conditions over Florida -- doesn't sound to bad?

The following CPC graphic is focused more on the weather patterns impacting North America during El Nino/La Nina.

Postscript 3) STORM TRACKS! With the active jet stream over Florida we get an increase in the number of storms. The following are storm tracks (made via http://data.giss.nasa.gov/stormtracks/)  from the Winter 1996-1997 vs. the El Nino winter of 1997-1998. The increased number of storms tracking over Florida during the El Nino episode is quite evident.

Postscript 2) A decreased likelihood of hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin is noted below, but I am adding some more material. The first is a recent article that discusses land-falling hurricane frequencies:

"The focus of the paper then shifts to U.S. landfalls, confirming previous research that U.S. landfalls are reduced in El Niño years. The reduction in landfall frequency is greater along the Florida peninsula and East Coast than it is along the Gulf Coast, especially for major hurricanes."

Secondly, here is the graphic from NHC for the 1997 hurricane season; will the coming season look similar?

The 1997-1998 El Nino is the most recent Super El Nino, let's take a look at some highlights, with a local focus, first from a weather perspective:

METEOROLOGICAL IMPACTS

1)  ROPELEWSKI, C. 1999. The great El Nino of 1997-1998: Impacts on precipitation and temperature. Consequences S(2): 17-26. 

"The heavy rains arrived in Florida and along the Gulf Coast as early as October 1997. Some areas in Florida experienced their wettest October to December in 104 years of record."

"Florida’s Department of Forestry, which maintains a reserve of water pumps for fighting brush fires, was called upon to help bail out flooded areas." 

2) NCDC Technical Report 98-02 April 1998 the El Nino Winter of '97-'98.

"December’s (1997) weather pattern featured a typical El-Nino configuration. A northern branch jet stream confined cold air to central Canada, and a strong southern branch of the jet stream brought cool wet weather across portions of the deep south. Record rainfall drenched parts of central and northeast Florida with Tampa receiving 15.57 inches, Orlando 12.63 inches, and Jacksonville 9.77 inches."

"Florida, Maryland, Nevada, Rhode Island, and Virginia had their second wettest February since records began in 1895."

"Florida wasn’t immune to wild weather either, as a strong southern jet stream brought storminess to the “Sunshine State.” Severe thunderstorms produced winds gusts to 104 mph in Miami, 90 mph in Hollywood, and 66 mph in Homestead on the 2nd and 3rd of the month. Over 220,000 Florida Power and Light customers were left without power, as the company said damage to its system was the worst since the “Storm of the Century” in March 1993. Another batch of severe thunderstorms spawned deadly tornadoes across central Florida on February 22-23, killing 42 people. See below for further details on the flooding in California and tornadoes in Florida."

"During the late evening of February 22 and early morning of February 23, 1998, a series of tornadoes ripped across central Florida. At least one of the tornadoes reached an estimated F4 intensity. Forty-two fatalities occurred, over 800 residences were destroyed, another 700 were left uninhabitable, over 3500 were damaged to some extent, and 135,000 utility customers lost power at the height of the storms. Damages from the tornado outbreak exceeded $60 million, and Florida’s overall storm damage total since last fall is approximately $500 million. Hardest hit locations in the tornado outbreak were Winter Garden, Altamonte Springs, Sanford, and Campbell. Overall, 54 of Florida’s 67 counties were declared federal disaster areas due to storms over the past few months."

Here are a couple of articles on Florida impacts from El Nino events (not just limited to the 1997-1998 event: 

3) Hagemeyer, B. C., 1998: Significant extratropical tornado occurrences in Florida during strong El Niño and strong La Niña events. Preprints, 19th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Minneapolis,MN, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 412–415.

"The historic EI Nino's of 1983 and 1998 set the stage for historic extratropical tornado activity in Florida. This brief study indicates that EI Nino's of the magnitude of 1983 and 1998 increase the chances of severe weather outbreaks and stronger ET tornadoes simply by providing more opportunities for all the right ingredients to come together. The only recorded F4's in Florida history (414/66 and 4/15/58) occurred in relatively strong. but lesser EJ Nino years. The deadliest tornado outbreak prior to February 1998 occunred in a neutral year (3/31/62). History tells us we cannot rule out devastating tornadoes in any severe weather season, regardless of the state of EI Nino. History also indicates the threat of increased severe weather activity when significant EI Nino's are forecast should be taken very seriously. There are very clear preparedness lessons for Florida: tornado watches and wamings issued in the dry season in the presence of strong jet stream dynamics in the late evening to mid morning represent particularly dangerous situations. This scenario could occur in any year, but is more likely In a strong EI Nino year."

4) Cook, A. R., J. T. Schaefer, 2008: The Relation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to Winter Tornado Outbreaks. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 3121–3137. 

"The DPI (destruction potential index) data indicate that Florida is the only state with markedly stronger tornadoes containing longer tracks during EN winters." -- EN is "El Nino". 

INDIAN RIVER LAGOON IMPACTS: From Salinity to Biology

Given a significant El Nino, what might we expect in terms of impact on the Indian River Lagoon? 

Postscript 4) The 1997-1998 El Nino had a significant impact on the southern Indian River lagoon as high water levels in Lake Okeechobee led to water releases. Let's start with this article from the Ocala Star-Banner of April 3, 1998:

Steinman, A., K. Havens, and L. Hornung. 2002. The managed recession of Lake Okeechobee, Florida: integrating science and natural resource management. Conservation Ecology 6(2): 17. [online] URL: http://www.consecol.org/vol6/iss2/art17/ 

The above article noted that "Following an extreme El Niño event in 1998, when lake (Lake Okeechobee) levels rose to the point at which the integrity of the levee was in jeopardy, maximum regulatory releases were made to the connecting estuaries. Shortly thereafter, 33 species of fish in the St. Lucie Estuary were observed to have lesions and ulcers (SFWMD 1999). An aquatic fungus is believed to be the causative agent, and although no direct link was made to the Lake Okeechobee releases, the proximity of the events pointed to lake discharge as a possible cause. These events resulted in more pressure from the public to keep lake levels lower to avoid the need for these types of regulatory discharges. Starting in 1999, weekly meetings were held via telephone between engineers, scientists, and managers at the USACE and SFWMD to discuss water levels and operational decisions. Stakeholder input was obtained at quarterly public meetings and at regular meetings of the SFWMD Governing Board. 

The SFWMD 1999 article is the following : SFWMD (South Florida Water Management District). 1999. Focus on the St. Lucie River. [Available online: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/wrp_ce/2_wrp_ce_info/stlucie.pdf.The article notes: 

"In the winter of 1997-98 extreme amounts of rainfall occurred over much of South Florida during the “El Niño” event. Lake Okeechobee reached dangerously high levels. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and South Florida Water Management District were forced to make maximum regulatory releases to the estuary through C-44 for flood protection purposes. Shortly thereafter, in early March 1998, anglers from Martin and St. Lucie counties began reporting lesioned or ulcerated fish from the St. Lucie Estuary. Within weeks, 33 species of sick fish had been reported to the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC). The FWC staff has examined more than 500 fish to help determine the cause of the open sores or lesions. The highest numbers of affected fish were captured in April and May 1998. Although there are many causes, FWC".

 

5)   Phlips, E. J., Badylak, S. and Grosskopf, T. (2002) Factors affecting the abundance of phytoplankton in a restricted subtropical lagoon, the Indian River Lagoon, Florida, USA. Estuarine Coastal Shelf Sci., 55, 385–402.

"One of the noteworthy features of environmental variability in the Indian River Lagoon during the study period was the change in rainfall, from the flood conditions of the El Nino to the relative drought of the post- El Nino period. This variation is evident from the monthly rainfall totals and departures from normal for two selected meteorological stations located within the drainage basin of the Indian River Lagoon. The most dramatic features were the impact of El Nino, which drove rainfall totals well above normal in the winter and early spring of 1997/98, and the above average rainfall totals in the summer and fall of 1999 associated with storm events"

"Salinity patterns in the lagoon were reflective of both spatial differences in the distance from inlets to the Atlantic Ocean and temporal changes in freshwater inflow (Figure 2). Salinities were highest at Site 1 in the Mosquito Lagoon, located near Ponce De Leon Inlet, and Site 6 located near the Sebastian Inlet. Salinities at both sites were regularly near, or above, 30. Even at these sites, the high rainfall totals experienced during the El Nino period (October of 1997 through April of 1998) forced salinities down to as low as 14. North of the Sebastian Inlet salinities in the Indian River Lagoon were relatively low, i.e. generally below 25. Sites 2, 3, 4 and 5 showed distinct salinity minima during the El Nino, followed by a rise in salinity at the post El Nino period. In contrast, salinities at Sites 7 and 8 were generally higher than at Sites 2–5."

6)  Dame, R., Alber, M., Allen, D., Mallin, M., Montague, C., Lewtius, A., Chalmers, A., Gardner, R., Gilman, C., Kjerfve, B., Pinckney, J., Smith, N., 2000. Estuaries of the south Atlantic coast of North America: their geographical signatures. Estuaries 23 (6), 793–819

 

"Inter-annual global climate changes also affect the southeastern Atlantic coast of North America. The best know of these cycles is the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate event. El Nino and La Nina are terms used to denote opposite phases of this cycle. This climatic cycle occurs every 2 to 7 yr and generally begins in October and ends in March (Ropelewski and Halpert 1986). Individual ENSO events are quite variable in North America and this variability has been attributed to difference in Eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures and internal atmospheric processes in North America. The latter is thought to account for a majority of the variability in the southeastern U.S. (Hoerling and Kumar 1997). ENSO events are thought to influence the southeastern Atlantic

coast in a number of ways. First, during El Nino years, winter temperatures are cooler and precipitation may exceed normal values by 3 cm or more (Ropelewski and Halpert 1986; Philander 1990; Hanson and Maul 1991). Although higher than normal freshwater discharge to southeastern estuaries with a higher groundwater table should be expected during these events, these features are only statistically observed from the northeastern coast of South Carolina to Florida (Kuhnel et al. 1990). Second, hurricane frequency in the Atlantic is usually reduced during El Nino years and that implies fewer storm impacts along the southeast coast. During the La Nina phase, the southeastern Atlantic coast experiences warmer winter temperatures with drier conditions when compared to average years. A recent synthesis by Sun and Furbish (1997) found that El Nino and La Nina are responsible for up to 40% of the annual precipitation variation and up to 30% of the river variations in Florida. During the recent 1997–1998 El Nino, few Atlantic hurricanes were observed and rainfall was heavy throughout the region from December through March. Florida and the coastal zone of the Carolinas received over 200% of normal precipitation for this period, while inland areas received 150% of normal precipitation. In North Inlet, a normally euhaline estuary, the increased rainfall depressed salinities below 20 psu for over 3 mo and below 10 psu for one extended period, setting a 20-yr record.

7)  Badylak S.,Phlips E. J. Spatial and temporal patterns of phytoplankton composition in a subtropical lagoon, the Indian River Lagoon, Florida, USA. J. Plankton Res. 2004;26:1229-1247.

 "A 2 year study of the phytoplankton community was carried out in the Indian River Lagoon, USA. In terms of biovolume, the phytoplankton community was generally dominated by dinoflagellates, diatoms or cyanobacteria. Mean phytoplankton standing crops were highest in the most flow-restricted regions of the lagoon, which had the lowest mean salinity values and comparatively high total nitrogen:total phosphorus ratios. In this region, blooms of dinoflagellates were common in the first year of the study, which was characterized by an El Niño event that yielded exceptionally high rainfall levels and freshwater outflow."

"From a temporal perspective, the highest frequency of bloom conditions at most of the sampling sites occurred in the summer and autumn of 1998, following the El Niño flood of the winter of 1997/98. The exception to this pattern was site 3 in the Banana River region of the IRL, where blooms of cyanobacteria were observed in the winter and spring of the second year of sampling". 

8) Phlips, E. J., S. Badylak, M. Christman and M. Lasi. 2010. Climatic trends and temporal patterns of phytoplankton composition, abundance and succession in the Indian River Lagoon, Florida, USA. Estuaries and Coasts 33:498-513.

  

In the northern lagoon, high rainfall levels increase nutrient load from the watershed, but do not result in short water residence times, due to the small size of the watersheds and large distance from inlets to the ocean. The latter conditions favor the development of algal blooms. Conversely, during drought periods, bloom activity is depressed, despite long water residence times, most probably due to increased potential for nutrient limitation (Phlips et al. 2002, 2004b). Phytoplankton dynamics in the central lagoon are fundamentally different than in the northern lagoon, in larger part due to short water residence times and variable salinities. As a result, phytoplankton blooms are infrequent in the central lagoon, despite relatively high nutrient loads.

Though not conducted during an El Nino period, this study is quite relevant:

9) Schaefer, A. M., G. D. Bossart, M. Mazzoil, P. A. Fair, and J. S. Reif. 2011. Risk factors for colonization of E. coli in Atlantic Bottlenosee Dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the Indian River Lagoon, Florida. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2011. Article ID 597073 8. p. 

"Age, gender, capture location, coastal human population density, proximity of sewage treatment plants, number of septic tanks, cumulative precipitation 48 hrs and 30 days prior to capture, salinity, and water temperature were analyzed as potential risk factors. Highest E. coli colonization rates occurred in the northern segments of the IRL. The risk of E. coli colonization was the highest among the youngest individuals, in counties with the highest cumulative rainfall 48 hrs and in counties with the highest number of septic systems during the year of capture. The prevalence of colonization was the highest during 2004, a year during which multiple hurricanes hit the coast of Florida. Septic tanks, in combination with weather-related events suggest a possible pathway for introduction of fecal coliforms into estuarine ecosystems. The ability of E. coli and related bacteria to act as primary pathogens or cause opportunistic infections adds importance of these findings."

What if we swing back to  La Nina following this episode?

 

 Salt in the Wound? FIRE!

10) D. T. M. Butry, D. Evan, J. P. Prestemon, J. M. Pye, and T. P. Holmes, “What is the price of catastrophic wildfire?” J. For., vol. 99, no. 11, pp. 9–17, 2001.

"The ENSO pattern of 1997–98 was atypical compared with other ENSOs because of the extraordinarily high rainfall in Florida during the wet El Niño portion of the cycle. The quick return to the La Niña phase was also atypical and created a severe drought. During the El Niño phase (1997 and early 1998), vegetation accumulated in northeastern Florida. By April 1998, when the drought took hold, the vegetation dried up and became a large and hazardous fuel source. In late spring and early summer 1998, the Keetch-Bryam drought index, a standard measure of wildfire danger, flirted with the maximum possible value of 800 for several weeks. Indeed, these conditions were so extreme that bald cypress swamps and other lowland forests burned more often than upland types (Mercer et al. 2000). In addition, the weather patterns present under La Niña and the resulting fuel buildup changed the mix of ignition sources for wildfire. Typically, arson is the most common source of wildfires in Florida. During the spring and summer of 1998, however, lightning was the most prevalent ignition source, with total strikes exceeding 60,000 for the St. John’s River Water Management District from June to mid-July 1998."

 

 So, will we have a wild ride in Florida Fall 2014 through Winter 2015, and beyond? ENSO it goes!